Does anyone have 83 cents? I just want a cheeseburger…
…whines the bum as I open the door to McDonald’s. I ignore him, and no I’m not just being a selfish skinflint. This bum regularly parks himself outside McDonald’s and asks strangers for money; it must be a hotspot for some easy cash. Safeway is another popular mooching site.
I hear that Portland is pretty well known for its homeless community. And it doesn’t surprise me: on any given street corner, odds are there is a bum who is not afraid to ask for your cigarettes and your ’spare change’. The worst bums are the ones who actively prowl the streets in search of potential doners. There’s this one bum I often see who will ask each and every person who he comes within 10 feet of. If you live downtown you’re likely seen him. He is around 5′9″, usually has decent looking jeans and shoes, and ALWAYS wears a button-down shirt.
Don’t give your money to bums! They use it to buy drugs. Don’t give a cigarette to a bum unless you light it for them. They will use it to buy drugs. According to my dear friend Trevor Merz, cigarettes are another form of currency in the bum world.
Speaking of bums and drugs, the other day I saw a bum in the middle of the sidewalk who was passed out while sitting up (heroin maybe?). This bum was so out of it that he didn’t realize another bum was digging through his own backpack, looking for anything of value. True story.
Do not let the bums keep you from enjoying your city. They are usually harmless. If you are approached by one, don’t feel like you need to be rude. A simple “no, sorry” or “I’m on a budget” should work.
And finally, don’t be greedy. Sometimes you will encounter a homeless individual who looks legitimately starved. Give them a couple quarters. You will feel good knowing you just made someone’s day.
If you are going to gamble, play a game that is actually winnable
The Gambler’s Fallacy is a relatively simple concept. Despite its simplicity many people fall victim to its effects. The expression “A fool and his money are soon parted” comes to mind. I say that it is a relatively simple concept because ultimately it boils down to a failure to recognize that future outcomes are independent of previous outcomes.
So why does this happen? Usually we are tempted to commit this fallacy when we see a series of outcomes that is unlikely or unexpected; a run of eight heads when flipping a coin and rolling five sixes in a row with a die are some examples that we can relate to. When we observe these “rare” events we are tempted to reason (falsely) that it is more likely for the pattern to end than it actually is. This temptation arises because people have a poor conception of what is random. Observe…
Suppose we are sitting at a roulette table and we watch the ball land on black eight times in a row. Does that look random? Not really. We expect that if the outcomes are random, that the ball would land on red as often as it lands on black. We assume that if we don’t observe this to be the case then the outcomes aren’t random. However we know that the outcomes are random, so in order to satisfy our idea of what is random we convince ourselves that the next outcome is more likely to be red.
We convinced ourselves with a valid argument: If random, then red is more likely; the events are random, therefore red is more likely. The problem with this reasoning lies within the first premise—if the sequence is random then red is more likely. This premise cannot be true because in a fair roulette game, the probability of getting eight black followed by a red is the same as the probability of getting eight black followed by a black. We failed to understand what it is to be random.
Our false premise also contradicts itself. If a series of consecutive black outcomes increased the chances of a red outcome, then the game would not be random: future outcomes would not be independent of previous outcomes. Herein lies the Gambler’s Fallacy.